Tag Archives: Internet

If You Know What You’re Doing, It’s Probably Time to Quit Your Job

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Recently I found a podcast series called “Foundation” hosted by Kevin Rose the former founder of Digg.  As many of my friends know, I usually spend about an hour a day on the train on my way back and forth to the office.  When I’m on the train I’m usually listening to business books and lectures.  (I’m a nerd.)  In college I used to go running for an hour or so every day and listened to Stanford’s free Entrepreneurial Thought Leadership lectures on iTunes U.  (I’m a long time nerd.)  My senior year I even conducted my own version of founder interviews, asking my peers in student leadership to share their stories with me for a book I never exactly got around to writing.  In all this time I’ve learned a lot from all these people and their experiences, but today I had a eureka moment listening to an interview between Brian Wong and Kevin Rose in the “Foundation” podcast series.

foundation podcastIn listening to 6-7 years worth of entrepreneurs and leaders I’d never noticed that they all had something in common… they didn’t know what they were doing.  Brian in referencing his own success mentioned the concept of a table of skilled poker players having an unskilled player joining the table.  The skilled poker players all know what to do, how to respond, when to take risk… they’re moves are pre-determined.  Add a player who doesn’t know what to do, and all of a sudden all the assumptions that determine the skilled players choices are gone.  The unskilled player becomes the table leader, becomes the person everyone else has to react to.  Sometimes that unpredictability creates new opportunity and the unskilled player ends up winning.

So I’m not sure labeling many successful folks as “unskilled” is the right comparison, but it does a pretty good job of identifying what differentiates many of the success stories in innovation.  When you don’t know what the right thing to do is, you create variations in the process… that’s how discovery happens.  When you don’t know the right way to be introduced to people, you’re tactics for meeting people ends up being different… and memorable… and more effective.  Not knowing what they’re doing isn’t the only key to success – pretty sure if it was we’d all be doing a bit better – but it is something you don’t want to forget.  Knowledge is power, but perspective is reality, and if you let what you think you know fully inform your perspective you’re no longer learning.

Now for the title of this blog post – If you know what you’re doing, it’s probably time to quit your job.  Not sure that concept applies to most, but for me I have a real problem with the idea of knowing what I’m doing.  It messes with the idea of free will for me – if I know what to do next, then my future is predetermined.  I really have trouble staying motivated when I know rest of the story.  (I’m that guy who never buys movies because it’s really hard for me to watch the same movie twice.)  I came into this blog post trying to write an explanation of “motivation”… as it turns out I found one of my own motivations.

Thanks for Listening,

Zach West

Apple Needs to Change – Facebook is About to Ruin Them

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Think about your phone… is it an iPhone?  What apps do you have, or more importantly what apps do you use?

Notice Q2-Q3 2011, that is what’s really happening over time in the market place. Then notice the adjustment that happens after the expansion to Sprint and Verizon. Great gains but not sustainable position. Also notice how the market is characterized as being only a few competitors.

The Situation:

Apple the world’s most “successful” company is at a decision point, one they’ve seen before.  Apple’s winning edge in their categories has been based on being clearly the best product available.  The iPhone in particular is by far the best phone you can buy.  (Or at least it was)  About a year ago the iPhone’s market share begin to fall back.  Apple was able to cover that up by expanding to Verizon and Sprint which has given them a short-term bump in market share.  In time though they will return to the issue of declining market share.  This is pretty normal as more and more people buy smart phones and more and more competition shows up in the market.  Android has done a very good job at grabbing share as the platform of the “everyphone”.  The trick is that no two Android devices are quite the same, creating a market not made up of two major user experiences as almost every graph would suggest, but rather a market place of one major user experience (iPhone) and hundreds of niche experiences.

Effectively the key to this is that the smart phone market has evolved into a marketplace with lots of different devices, creative lots of choice and niche offerings.  Some phones are better of taking pictures, others are all about the web, other basically just high-end GPS units, but all of them are unique in one way or another.  This is causing the smart phone buyer/user to place a lot of weight on what the main features of value

Notice here the snap shot of all the different device manufacturers in the category. This is important to understand, that while Apple competes in both, Android only is OS focused. (For the sake of the argument we’ll pretend Google doesn’t own Motorola.)

proposition of each phone is.  Buying a phone is like buying a car, there become a lot of things to consider and often that consideration leads a customer to want the iPhone for its quality.

Enter the problem – It’s hard to stay different with app stores and cloud based solutions.

Almost every smart phone has some version of an app store, a place where users can go to download additional features for their device.  These app stores usually have a number of different phone upgrades available in them.  Instagram to upgrade your photos/camera, Evernote to upgrade your note taking capabilities, even Foursquare to improve on the initial maps tool that comes with your phone.  This is where Apple starts running into some problems -

1.  Over time Apple can’t sustain an advantage in the hardware it produces.  While Apple may continue to stay ahead of the curve, the major hardware features most consumers crave will be available on both iPhones and its competitors.  This creates an issue where customers will no longer be able see the iPhone as differentiated from its competitors in the physical device’s features.

2.  If all smart phones have app stores than an app builder, say

The iPhone has a lot of different Android based competitors, not just one.  This makes it very hard to won in the long term as each of these “small-share” devices can beat the iPhone in the various niche’s they target.

Facebook, could build there apps pretty uniformly across all of the smart phone providers.  This creates a problem for Apple when trying the differentiate the iPhone when it comes to Apps.  In the early days, app developers were mostly private individuals, so iOS being the biggest market to build apps for Apple enjoyed having apps like Instagram be iPhone Exclusive.  But over the next few years, this isn’t going to continue.  The most popular apps  are going to be owned and managed by big companies such as Facebook.  The big companies may not build them, but they’ll buy them and give them the resources to develop the app on all platforms, not just the iPhone.  (The App developer world is going to evolve in a very similar way to how the video game industry and PC software industry have.)

3.  When working on an internet enabled device one has the ability to send/save their data anywhere, this simple technology overcomes the biggest switching cost when buying a new phone.  The user never wants to risk losing their photos, contacts, recent conversations, and so on.  This also undermines the need for me and all of my friends to have the iPhone, because not only are all my favorite apps on every device, my friends can have them too, no matter the smart phone type.  The cloud combined with app developers like a Facebook create problems from Apple’s differentiation argument.

What remains of Apple’s Power Base, and How Facebook and others will destroy it.

Some things that got me thinking this way:

This is the traditional home screen… how many of these “out of the box features” are unique to the iPhone?  How many of them are vastly improved on by other apps?

1.  The Nintendo64 over came its old technology, the cartridge, because it was able to differentiate itself by have more/better games to play.  Apple used to share the advantage of better apps, but that won’t be the case in the long-term.  Nintendo eventually lost the more/better games point of differentiation because games became uniformly available across platforms.

2.  Microsoft is entering the market and has played this game before… Twice… and Won.  In the video game industry Microsoft showed up in a later wave of video game consoles as the technology began to be a lot more like the computer industry.  The XBOX wasn’t a huge success initially, but as video games became for uniformly available the system took over share by differentiating itself with online play.  This gap was widened as the company was able to continued growth in the industry with the XBOX 360.  Before the video game industry though, they played this game with Apple, betting that software would be the long-term champion of the computer market.  By creating a world where software could work uniformly across all types of computers Microsoft made it very hard for the customer to differentiate between HP or Dell or even Gateway (Microsoft’s own brand of computer).  Microsoft has put a lot behind the most recent Windows Phone launches and looks to be learning from its previous victories.  The windows phone embraces the cloud not so much as a Microsoft thing, but rather an app world thing.  (The heavy integration of Facebook is a bigger then most might think.)

3.  Evernote and Dropbox have created storage solutions that work across the internet

Here’s my second screen of apps, the apps I use often.  (Honestly almost every day)

connected world making Android’s, Windows’, and Apple’s solutions somewhat irrelevant.  By making the use of the apps free up front Evernote and Dropbox make it easy for users to adopt the apps, and the ease of transition from one device to another basically make the Notes irrelevant.

4.  Beyond Evernote and Dropbox, look at all the apps out there that basically make the basic software features of the iPhone irrelevant.  iMessage can basically be replaced with Facebook Messenger, Twitter and old fashion email.  Notes as mentioned can be replaced with Evernote.  Google+ Hangout or Skype replace the value of Facetime.  Instagram and Facebook Camera can cover all the value offered by Photos and Camera, basically all the Photos tool is needed for is short-term storage until you can upload your photo to Facebook.  This pattern continues with a number of other features.

5.  And then there is Facebook.  Facebook is the company best positioned to take advantage of the changing landscape.  When Zuckerburg says Facebook is in the business of changing the way people communicate… he wasn’t just saying something nice for the IPO.  Facebook is about to make that change to how people communicate, and this weeks release of Facebook Camera…

How Facebook is going to ruin Apple:

Focus on the feature based apps from Facebook. (Their ratings are much higher.)  Facebook’s new strategy of feature focused apps seems to be getting positive results thus far.

Things to understand about Facebook,

-Massive user base already, at the end of 2011 more people were on Facebook than had smart phones.

-Massive amounts of data and storage- messaging, conversation history, photos, contact info, event planning and so on, all in the form of data stored on Facebook.

-Presence on most phones.  There app is widely adopted as a pre-loaded feature on almost every phone.  (except the iPhone)

Facebook’s positioning over the next few years will be what changes the smart phone marketplace.  As we’ve seen over the past few months Facebook has changed its approach to the mobile solution, adapting and learning from the most successful apps that connect to it.  They’ve changed from trying to have one app that does it all (which they’re not deleting any time soon) to feature apps focused on one specific thing.  Basically their bringing the most popular apps on their platform to mobile.  (eg. Photos is an app on Facebook that know is on your phone as “Facebook Camera”)  If they were to do that, think about all the features they could replace.  (Contact Info, Maps, Messaging, Camera, Photo Storage)  Then step back and think about all the features apps tightly aligned with Facebook could replace. (Video Chat (Skype), Music (Spotify),  even the News (Washington Post)) Facebook’s app suite is actually really well set up to add value to any mobile user.  The key there was “any”, all of the apps Facebook is creating can be fitted across all devices.  Facebook unlike most app developers has the resources to make the phone you own not matter when it comes to connecting with them.  With all the data being saved back Facebook itself, the phone again doesn’t have to have any specific amount of storage capabilities.

This is a major issue for Apple, as Facebook could make a run at positioning itself as the means of communication for the average smart phone user.  If that becomes the case, then almost all the differentiating points that make the iPhone such a leader now won’t matter.

The solution:

Honestly, Apple should buy Facebook.  Not because Facebook is some kind of great revenue producer, it’s actually a very flawed one, but because Facebook poses such a threat to the future of Apple as the industry leader.

Thanks for listening,

Zach West

The End of Imagination… Enter the world of Reality…

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The Internet is something that will never end… It’s the complete and beautiful reality of our imagination.  The Romans built great forums and marvels to host the greatest of sporting events… The Greeks developed ideas of free speech and  a unity of human existence in the olympic competitions… The great cultures of Asia found enlightenment and a grander concept wisdom… And now all those things have been out done.  We don’t just have the greatest sporting events in the world… We even have fantasy football to raise them to new heights… Facebook and Twitter are miracles compared to the great forums of the Greeks and Romans… While the olympic games are great, today’s gaming communities on XBOX and PS3 take the idea of a grand multicultural games to a unbelievable level.  

There are great conquests that human kind has overcome.  We first conquered the beasts that lived among us… Then we conquered the land with irrigation and farming… Each conquest opening a new world to humanity.  Next we found culture and community, building cities and belonging beyond the family unit… And with this came civilization and the written word… Building a record that could allow each generation to learn and grow beyond what it’s prior had.  Then came government and concepts that collections of communities could build a stronger and better supported existence…. Now with that stability behind them humanity found arts and sciences… Laying the groundwork for everything needed to tackle a new frontier, not a physical conquest like all the others, but rather the conquest of the imagination.

The idea is reality of imagination… The Internet and human society are at a turning point, right now…  We have conquered much of the physical world, and now we are entering a virtual world… The net has evolved just as art has, first we drew what we saw, then we drew what we wanted to see, then we drew our imagination.  The world is connected, the collections of communities that used to be the drivers of patriotism in government, are now developing the governments of the web.  Are you going to be a Mac or a PC… Are you going to belong to XBOX Live or PS3… Are you going to be a leader of the conversation in your twitter feed or will you listen… Will you be one of the first to realize that anything that can be conceived can be built, can exist, can become real… We stand at the end of the Internet we knew as a network of communication or even expression… We have evolved to something new as humans… There is no such thing as impossible anymore… There is no such thing as imagination anymore… It is the beginning of the era of reality.  Everything can be real… We have entered a new state of being, we can now create our world in the image we want.  

The Internet is a very scary thing to a lot of people… But as I watch the world of technology, art, and society collide in a grand virtual mix of creation, there is no doubt in my mind that we have evolved to have the skills of the aliens we conceived in the 1960s and the Gods we worshiped in ancient times.  So with that I implore you to learn and to accept our next great evolution into something quite special.  I promise it will be a lot of fun doing the impossible.

Social Media is like Prom and Google can’t get a date

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The other day Google launched a new “social tool” the “+1″ button.  It got me thinking about Social Media as a whole, and I realized something… it is basically high school.  And what better way to represent high school than the prom.  (Enjoy)

Here are the characters:

Facebook- obviously the popular kid, probably a jock.  Everyone loves to be seen with Facebook, from his good looks to his game winning touchdown in the state finals.  Every kid, and teacher for that matter, knows and like him.  Everyone just feels like they really connect with him, and know everything there is to know.  (Granted there’s a lot a jealousy and gossip out there on him, but that’s what being popular is all about.)  And if you’re wondering, he’s dating the prom queen… from last year.

Foursquare – probably the closest person to whom most normal people are like in high school.  He’s got a small group of friends that he keeps up with.  They’re real close, and are always going everywhere together.  Prom is going to be weird for them, because it means they’ll have to go to college soon.  And his group is very tight-knit, so talking about what’s going on in different places is going to be weird.  (You know, like when one of the people you follow on Foursquare moves to a different city and all their updates are like ehh… because you have no idea what their talking about…)  Foursquare meet his date in P.E., and was worried she might say no, but she said yes.  Most people at school don’t know him, but the one’s that do are always around.

Twitter- Let’s be honest, twitter is the kind of a pot head, edgy, cool kid.  Everyone knows of him, but most people have no idea who he really is.  The people who he does hang out with are always coming back for more.  (Some people think he might be a drug dealer.)  During prom, odds are good twitter is going to slide out back for a smoke and just talk about prom, actually going in isn’t his style.  Let’s be honest, most people what to hang out with twitter, they just don’t know him well enough.  And twitter has a date; she’s from the school across town.  (A few people think she might be in college.)

LinkedIn- Student Council President, she’s running the Prom.  She got the money together, picked out the themes, and totally does not have time for a date.  (Did my best not to make her a member of Future Business Leaders of America, but let’s be honest she runs that club too.)

Google- Nerd Alert… Google is that guy who is totally a walking encyclopedia.  He knows like everything, accept how to have a normal conversation with a girl.  He’s always trying to use lines that he sees the other guys use and the line never seems to work.  And yes, you got it… Google’s got a blue tux ready to go.  However he’s having trouble finding a date.  I mean he’s asking girls, just not getting any yeses.  Of course, that won’t stop him.  He’ll just go stag.  (Of course fast forward to the 20 year High School reunion… Google is rich and running a 90+% Profit Margin business… so maybe it’s worth it not being the cool kid.)

Microsoft- Coolness by association.  Microsoft hangs out with Facebook, not to mention he’s the richest kid at school.  Has the hot new car, and his date is going to a $200 a plate dinner before prom.  Oh and his date, she’s Facebook’s date’s hot friend.

Yelp- Gossip Queen… Ever see the movie “Mean Girls”.  (Thank you Tina Fey that was an awesome movie.) Remember that book that they wrote all those mean thing in.  Well Yelp and her friends publish that book at this school.  And you better believe she’s going to be reviewing this year’s prom.

So now if you’re wondering how prom went… well I’ll leave most of that to your imagination, but here are the highlights.

-Facebook was the prom king, and LinkedIn was prom queen.  (LinkedIn rigged the voting.)

-Google got drunk because Twitter’s date spiked the punch.  Google actually kissed a girl that night.

-Microsoft was there.

-Yelp got here story… she saw LinkedIn rig the voting.  (Yelp thought she should have been queen.)

-Foursquare had a fun night, filled with memories.

-Twitter got high.

Thanks for listening,

Zach West

If you have social networks that you think were at prom please share!  A 7 person prom is kind of lame.

Netflix Changed the Internet

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So there is this company right, and they thought up this idea where you should be able to watch video content you want with a low priced subscription, without paying $5 at Blockbuster. They build a nice business out of mail order DVDs and it was a nice idea, then they added an “extra subscription feature” that changed everything.

Netflix rolled out this new thing called “watch instantly”, and they didn’t charge extra for it. I first discovered this when I got access to watch instantly through a friend with Netfilx and XBOX Live accounts. My world was changed. You mean I don’t have to watch what is on TV anymore? Wait… how many movies are there to choose from? And its all I want, not limit? So needless to say I was personally hooked, and in time so it seems so was everybody else. And that is when Netflix changed the internet.

In late January 2011 Netflix was told by the major ISPs that they had to slow their roll. The ISPs couldn’t keep up with all of the streaming high quality (big files) video that Netflix customers were demanding. In the past the ISPs would have had their way on this one. Them being in complete control of all the lines of distribution and all.  Well, not so fast.  Netflix had become so big at this point that their performance on the top ISPs would be considered a strong sample from which to judge the best and worst ISPs. (Can you say leverage.) So they released these stats to the public. (You can see the results here: http://techblog.netflix.com/2011/01/netflix-performance-on-top-isp-networks.html )  Netflix had created such an awesome product with so much usage that they literally forced the networks to improve at a faster rate.  Netflix accelerated the improvement of your internet connects.  (I’m a fan of anyone or company that can make the ISPs get better.)

They did something else to change the internet.  They made streamed and downloaded content legal again.  More traffic was driven by Netflix this last year than bit.torrent websites.  More content was paid for via Netflix rather than downloaded for free.  (Wait a second, you mean people will actually pay for content?)  It turns out all we needed was a good platform/subscription to be a part of in order to pay for our content consumption.  I have no ideas what the details are of the agreement between Netflix and the video content creators, but if I was in the movie biz… I’d have a Netflix account just out of principle if nothing else.  (Want more details on how Netflix is 30+% of internet usage in North America, check this out: http://blog.moviefone.com/2011/05/20/netflix-bandwidth-internet/ )

So lets recap:

-Netflix is driving ISPs to develop faster and more efficient ways to deliver you content online… (Gold Star)

-Netflix is making content consumption online a business model rather than a piracy case… (Double Gold Star)

In closing… awesome job Netflix.  I’m proud to currently have an account with you, and blown away by how easy it makes my life.

-Zach West

*One disclaimer on this post, I was in NO way paid to write this.  These are my own thoughts.  Also I’m very disappointed I wasn’t able to work the word “Paradigm Shift” into this post.

Why people do what they do?

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So this is the first post on my fancy new blog.  So what should I talk about, what should I share, and who in their right mind would read it…

My name is Zach West.  By day, I like to think of myself as an internet professional,  I work for a website.  By night I do my best to play/watch sports, chase girls, and I fool around with the idea of being and improv comic.  So while that is the everyday boring description of my life, here’s the fun truth about this blog…

As long as I can remember I have always wanted to understand “Why people do what they do?”  I’ve chased the question for years and I think I’ve finally figured it out.  Each person is completely different, and has a completely different set of reasons for what they do.   So with that in mind I’d like to invite you to read my blog as I talk about the stuff I see everyday, and how it relates back to my favorite question of “Why people do what they do?”

Thanks and I hope you like it,

Zach